108-59(65%) +122.76 units of profit! (+$122,762)
Okay big advantage here for the Phils tonight for many reasons and I will just thank Mr. Padilla for being amazing in his first start which has given us this great line of -135 otherwise we'd see this at -200! Okay let's get down to brass tax.
Padilla has been amazing in the post season I won't disagree with that he threw a gem for the Dodgers only win in this series going 7.1 IP giving up 4 hits 1 BB and 6K's. However, in three starts this year where he faced a team for the second time he pitched worse. This was during the regular season when he pitched for the Rangers. He gave up 3 additional ER to OAK when he faced them the 2nd time, 2 additional ER vs. SEA the second time, and 2 ER more against the Angels the second time. Now I would be stupid to base my decision on just that line, but the fact of the matter is Padilla struggles vs. left handed hitters. In fact left handed hitters are batting .303 with a .833 OPS vs. him this year compared to right handed hitters .246 and .661 OPS. Phillies 1st 4 hitters are left handed and I expect Jimmy Rollins to start to get hot after his game winning hit on Monday. The Phillies line up at home has 6 lefties including Ibanez who has good numbers 9-28 with a .930 OPS vs. Padilla. Why did the Phillies struggle the first time? It was on the road for one and some of these hitters have only seen Padilla a limited time I mean less than 6 AB as they only faced him one other time and in that appearance in 2008 he gave up 7 ER in 6IP. I think he will choke tonight for the Dodgers with the game on the line.
Cole Hamels on the other hand has nothing, but positive numbers against the Dodgers over his career. In fact they have just a .228 average. So why did he struggle last game. Well #1 he pitched a complete game on the road vs. LA earlier in the season, but this game was on the road and during the day two scenarios that for some reason have not favored Cole. He has an ERA +1.49 during the day, and an ERA +1.23 on the road. Those are two scenarios he won't have to deal with on Wednesday night. During the regular season he had 2 great starts going a total 16 IP giving up 1 ER for a .56 ERA while striking 14 batters out. expect his first start 5.1 IP 8 hits and 4 ER and 2HR to be erased by a performance that you can expect from 2008's World Series MVP.
Oh Phillies 10-1 last 11 home playoff games and the Dodgers are 0-4 in their last 4 road games vs. a LH starter!
